Technological Shock Index
About Jay Niblick
I’ve spent the last several years watching the AI landscape evolve from a scattered collection of niche applications into a world-shaping phenomenon. Everywhere you look, people are debating just how disruptive these technologies might be—whether a new wave of automation will swallow entire professions, or if human workers will simply shift to more creative roles. Yet through all these discussions, one critical piece was missing: a simple, universal way to gauge the magnitude of disruption. It’s easy to say technology could be “as bad as” the Industrial Revolution or “less significant” than the decline of agriculture, but how do we actually compare these events in a meaningful, apples-to-apples way?
That question drove me to develop the Technological Shock Index (TSI). By quantifying the percentage of jobs at risk (X), the offset from any new or adapted roles (Z), and the timeline (Y) over which these changes occur, TSI aims to give us a single metric—on a 0–5 scale—to talk about disruption with the clarity of a Richter scale for earthquakes. My hope is that TSI becomes a common reference point, used by policymakers, business leaders, educators, and everyday people alike, to contextualize the potential impact of emerging technologies. When someone says, “AI will eliminate millions of jobs,” TSI can help us weigh whether that disruption is modest and gradual, or so severe it echoes historic crises like the Great Depression.
Technological Shock Index
jay niblick
Jay Niblick
Founder / VC / Author
A recognized leader in Industrial-Organizational Psychology, Jay holds multiple patents, trademarks, and copyrights in psychometric assessments, consultative methodologies, and human capital management. With deep expertise in human behavior, leadership, and organizational change, he specializes in understanding how technological disruption impacts workforce dynamics. His work focuses on identifying and maximizing human potential in an era where AI and automation are rapidly reshaping the future of work.