
Current Global TSI 1.93
(Q1 January 2025)
quantifying the intensity of workforce disruption
the TECHNOLOGICAL SHOCK INDEX
The Technological Shock Index (TSI) — A new metric designed to measure how deeply and how rapidly technology may unsettle the workforce. Think of it as a “Richter scale” for economic tremors: a framework to gauge who might be most affected, how quickly changes will roll out, and which interventions can help.
The Rapid Pace of Technology
The TSI Over Time
(Q1 2025) – TSI: 1.93
(Q3 2024) – TSI: 1.65
(Q1 2024) – TSI: 1.30
(Q3 2023) – TSI: 1.05
(Q1 2023) – TSI: 0.80
How TSI Works
Measuring the speed and scale of technological disruption
The world of work is changing faster than ever. Artificial intelligence, automation, and robotics are transforming industries at an unprecedented pace, compressing what once took decades into mere years. Entire sectors are being reshaped, new job roles are emerging, and longstanding professions are at risk of fading into obsolescence. The question isn’t if disruption will occur—but rather how quickly and how deeply it will impact the workforce.
To answer this, we introduce the Technological Shock Index (TSI), a breakthrough metric designed to…

where could we be headed?
hypothetical futures
By calculating a single, actionable score, the TSI helps organizations and governments plan for the future with data-driven precision, ensuring that technology serves progress rather than destabilization.
TSI 0-1: Manageable Evolution
TSI of 0-1: Manageable Evolution, Gradual Adaptation, and Stability
At a TSI of 0-1, technological advancements are incremental rather than disruptive, allowing industries, workers, and policymakers to adapt at a sustainable pace. This level of change resembles previous industrial transitions, such as the adoption of computers in the workplace or the automation of basic manufacturing tasks. While some sectors experience noticeable shifts, the economy remains resilient, and the social fabric remains intact.
At this stage, new technologies primarily enhance human productivity rather than replace workers outright, leading to a period of economic expansion and skill evolution rather than mass displacement.
Employment and Workforce Trends: Adaptation Over Displacement
- Automation augments rather than replaces jobs, with AI and robotics acting as assistive tools rather than full job replacements.
- Workforce reskilling happens naturally, as generational shifts allow younger workers to enter the labor market with relevant skills while older workers retire gradually.
- Job growth matches or exceeds job displacement, with new roles emerging in AI ethics, automation oversight, and digital infrastructure management.
- Education systems adjust smoothly, integrating AI, data literacy, and advanced automation concepts into curricula without major structural overhauls.
Economic and Industrial Landscape: Productivity Gains Without Upheaval
- AI adoption occurs steadily, improving efficiency across sectors without rapid workforce reduction.
- Small and medium businesses benefit from automation, as AI tools become accessible without requiring massive infrastructure investments.
- No major regional economic collapses occur—traditional industries remain stable while emerging industries grow at a predictable, manageable pace.
- Consumer spending remains strong, as automation enhances wages and work-life balance rather than eliminating income sources.
Policy and Government Response: Proactive, Not Reactive
- Government policies focus on skill enhancement, offering subsidized AI training programs rather than large-scale economic interventions.
- Tax incentives encourage responsible AI adoption, ensuring companies balance automation with human workforce development.
- Social safety nets remain stable, with no urgent need for UBI or mass welfare expansion, as job markets remain dynamic and accessible.
- Political stability persists, with no widespread backlash against automation, as workers see opportunities rather than threats in technological change.
Social and Psychological Impact: Confidence in the Future
- Workers feel empowered, not threatened, by technology, seeing AI as a partner rather than a competitor.
- Public perception of AI remains positive, with the majority of people embracing tech-driven solutions in healthcare, education, and workplace efficiency.
- Minimal social unrest occurs, as job markets remain stable, and people feel their livelihoods are secure.
- Trust in institutions remains strong, as governments and businesses successfully manage the transition without widespread disruption.
Verdict: A Future of Innovation Without Chaos
At a TSI of 0-1, the U.S. experiences technological progress without instability. Automation and AI enhance productivity, create new opportunities, and improve quality of life, all while allowing for natural workforce adaptation.
This is the ideal scenario, where economic growth, job creation, and technological evolution happen in harmony, ensuring sustained prosperity without the societal fractures seen in high-TSI scenarios.
TSI 1-2: Noticeable Disruption
TSI of 1-2: Noticeable Disruption with Manageable Adjustments
At a TSI of 1-2, the United States experiences moderate but increasing technological disruption, requiring industry-wide adaptation and workforce retraining. The economy remains stable overall, but specific sectors feel intensifying pressure as automation and AI begin replacing routine and repetitive jobs at a pace that outstrips natural workforce turnover. While job loss is not yet catastrophic, companies, policymakers, and workers must act early to prevent future instability.
This stage represents the first warning signs of structural labor shifts, where proactive intervention, such as upskilling programs and industry adaptation, can still prevent long-term negative consequences.
Employment and Workforce Trends: The First Warning Signs
- 10-25% of jobs in affected sectors are automated or transformed, primarily in manufacturing, retail, logistics, and customer service.
- Job creation slightly lags behind job loss, with workers needing significant retraining to transition to AI-augmented roles.
- Younger workers adapt faster, while mid-career and older workers face challenges in reskilling for digital or tech-driven jobs.
- Gig economy expansion continues, but AI begins replacing some freelance and contract roles, such as content creation, data entry, and basic software development.
- The first signs of wage stagnation appear in jobs where automation is rapidly increasing but not yet fully replacing human labor.
Industry and Economic Impacts: Efficiency Gains with Friction
- Companies see rising productivity, as AI and automation optimize workflows, customer interactions, and logistics.
- Some regions experience economic strain, particularly in areas reliant on single industries vulnerable to automation (e.g., factory-heavy towns, call center hubs).
- New tech-driven industries emerge, offering higher-paying opportunities, but require specialized STEM, AI, and data-related skills that many displaced workers don’t yet have.
- Mid-sized businesses feel the squeeze, struggling to afford AI adoption at the same level as large corporations, widening the competitive gap.
- Education systems begin integrating AI literacy, but retraining efforts remain slow and inconsistent across regions.
Policy and Government Response: The First Adaptive Steps
- Targeted workforce initiatives emerge, subsidizing upskilling and retraining in automation-resistant roles (e.g., AI maintenance, cybersecurity, healthcare).
- Tax incentives for AI adoption include requirements for worker retraining, aiming to prevent mass layoffs.
- Policymakers study early Universal Basic Income (UBI) and wage supplements, but the discussion remains exploratory rather than urgent.
- Labor unions negotiate AI integration strategies, advocating for job transition programs and human-AI collaboration models.
- State and local governments take the lead, experimenting with education and workforce adaptation programs at different speeds.
Social and Psychological Impact: Rising Anxiety but Contained Stability
- Most people still feel job security, but concern grows among mid-career workers in vulnerable industries. Unions and organized groups of workers begin to speak out, sensing the coming disruption and seeking security for their roles while they can.
- Political narratives around AI regulation and automation intensify, with debates on tech oversight, corporate responsibility, and economic displacement mitigation.
- Consumer behavior shifts as more people invest in digital skill-building, AI-adjacent careers, and personal financial buffers to hedge against future uncertainty.
- Public perception of AI is mixed, many embrace its efficiency, while others begin resisting corporate automation efforts, especially in blue-collar, white-collar, and creative communities.
Verdict: A Pivotal Moment for Proactive Change
At a TSI of 1-2, the early signs of disruption are undeniable but still manageable. With timely investment in workforce reskilling, education reform, and policy adaptation, the U.S. can transition into an AI-driven economy without mass economic instability. However, if adaptation lags, the nation risks escalating toward a 2-3 level TSI, where labor markets and economic structures face more severe strain.
The key to preventing high-impact displacement is early action, ensuring that technological progress benefits all workers, not just those already in tech-driven careers.
TSI 2-3: High Disruption
TSI of 2-3: High Disruption, Economic Strain, and Workforce Fracturing
At a TSI of 2.0, the United States would likely experience moderate but widespread disruption due to automation, AI, and other technological advancements. While some industries are adapting, the speed of change outpaces the ability of certain sectors and regions to transition smoothly. The economy remains functional, but stress fractures are visible across labor markets, education, and policy response efforts.
Employment and Workforce Trends
- 30-40% of routine, process-driven jobs, such as customer service, data entry, and logistics coordination, have either been automated or significantly altered by AI augmentation.
- Job displacement is concentrated in blue-collar and service industries, but new roles in AI oversight, maintenance, and digital services emerge to offset about half of the losses.
- Many mid-career workers struggle to reskill quickly enough to remain competitive, leading to rising income disparity between tech-savvy professionals and those in disrupted sectors.
Regional and Economic Shifts
- Rust Belt 2.0: Industrial hubs face a second wave of automation-driven layoffs, echoing the decline of manufacturing jobs in the late 20th century. Cities with strong tech or healthcare presences thrive, while single-industry towns risk collapse if adaptation efforts are slow.
- The Great Migration 2.0: Workers relocate toward urban tech hubs and AI-driven industrial zones, creating housing shortages in some regions and economic stagnation in others.
- The gig economy expands, but wages stagnate as AI-powered platforms make some gig work redundant.
Policy and Education Response
- Education systems scramble to keep up, introducing AI-literacy and automation-proof job training, but struggles with bureaucracy and outdated curricula slow progress.
- The government expands social safety nets, such as wage subsidies, rapid reskilling programs, and sector-based tax incentives, to soften the economic impact.
- Conversations around Universal Basic Income (UBI) gain traction, though opposition remains due to cost concerns and ideological divides.
Public Sentiment and Societal Impact
- Workers over 45 face the toughest adaptation curve, leading to resentment and political polarization, with anti-tech movements gaining ground.
- Younger generations pivot quickly to digital-first careers, widening the generational divide on work and stability expectations.
- Some industries, particularly in healthcare, education, see AI as a collaborative tool rather than a replacement, resulting in optimistic adoption and enhanced productivity.
Overall Outlook: A Nation in Transition
At a TSI of 2.0, the U.S. is in the midst of noticeable but not catastrophic disruption. While some regions and demographics thrive, others struggle to keep pace, creating economic and political instability. The ability to manage this transition—through proactive education, policy, and workforce adaptation—determines whether the nation settles into a sustainable, technology-driven future or faces widening social fractures that demand urgent intervention.
TSI 3-4: Severe Disruption
TSI of 3-4: Severe Disruption, Economic Instability, and Social Strain
At a TSI of 3.0, the U.S. is facing severe technological disruption. The rapid acceleration of AI, automation, and robotics has destabilized major industries, forcing urgent adaptation measures. Unlike the more gradual shifts of the past, entire sectors have been transformed or eliminated within a single decade, leaving millions of workers struggling to transition. The divide between those who can adapt and those left behind has deepened economic and social tensions, putting strain on governments, businesses, and communities alike.
Employment and Workforce Trends
- 40-60% of traditional jobs have been automated, displaced, or dramatically altered, with entire job categories vanishing overnight in logistics, retail, customer service, and administrative work.
- The middle class erodes, as many former white-collar professions—such as accounting, law, and even some medical diagnostics—become AI-augmented to the point of requiring fewer human workers.
- Large corporations aggressively integrate AI, shedding significant portions of their human workforce, while small businesses struggle to compete with AI-driven efficiency.
Job creation cannot keep up—though new roles in AI development, maintenance, and human-AI collaboration exist, they require specialized training, creating a massive skill gap.
Regional and Economic Fallout
- Mass urban displacement occurs as entire industries collapse. Former industrial and service-based cities—Detroit 2.0, the Deep South, and parts of the Midwest—see skyrocketing unemployment rates of 20-30%, leading to a rise in “economic ghost towns.”
- The rise of AI monopolies consolidates power into a handful of tech giants, increasing economic inequality as wealth shifts into AI-driven businesses.
- Housing crises worsen as displaced workers flood into remaining “resilient cities” (such as
- AI-driven hubs in California, Texas, and New York), driving costs beyond affordability.
The U.S. GDP fluctuates wildly, as some industries skyrocket in efficiency, but mass unemployment leads to reduced consumer spending, forcing major shifts in economic policies.
Policy and Government Response
- Universal Basic Income (UBI) is no longer optional—the government enacts large-scale economic relief, but funding strains lead to political turmoil and heavy tax hikes on corporations and high-income earners.
- Mass retraining efforts expand, but at this scale, it becomes clear that not all workers can be reabsorbed into the AI economy, forcing governments to reconsider long-term economic restructuring.
- Political unrest surges, with protests, labor strikes, and anti-tech movements forming as millions demand solutions for mass unemployment. Tech regulation debates intensify, with calls for slowing AI adoption to protect jobs.
- Cybersecurity threats increase, as bad actors exploit automation-dependent infrastructure, leading to rising fears of AI-driven economic warfare.
Social and Psychological Impact
- Trust in institutions crumbles as many feel abandoned by the system. The divide between tech elites and displaced workers fuels widespread resentment, leading to populist political movements.
- Mental health crises explode, with depression, anxiety, and AI-induced existential stress becoming public health emergencies.
- Younger generations adapt, finding new opportunities in digital-first careers, but many older workers (45+) struggle to compete, widening intergenerational divides.
- Crime rates increase in economically devastated regions, as desperation fuels underground economies, including AI-assisted fraud and cybercrime.
The Tipping Point: What Comes Next?
A TSI of 3.0 signals a national crisis—entire economic systems are under strain, and social stability is threatened. Without bold, coordinated responses between government, business, and educational institutions, the risk of cascading economic collapse, mass social unrest, and deepening inequality becomes a genuine possibility.
The U.S. must now choose between aggressive intervention to restructure the economy for an AI-dominated world or watch as instability accelerates toward a future where only a select few thrive, while the majority are left behind.
TSI 4.0: Severe Disruption
TSI of 4.0: Severe Disruption, Potential Economic Collapse and Societal Breakdown
At a TSI of 4.0, the U.S. faces an existential crisis as the workforce is destabilized beyond recovery under the relentless advance of AI, robotics, and automation. The displacement of 50-80% of jobs has occurred too rapidly for meaningful adaptation, leaving entire demographics and industries obsolete in less than a decade. Mass unemployment, economic freefall, and societal unrest have become the defining features of life. Without immediate large-scale intervention, the nation risks systemic collapse as traditional economic and social structures fail to cope with the pace of change.
Employment and Workforce Trends: The Collapse of Work
- More than half of the U.S. workforce is unemployed or underemployed, as AI and automation have replaced a majority of all process-driven, cognitive, and physical labor roles.
- Entire industries risk vanishing overnight, including transportation, finance, legal services, customer service, and retail. Even skilled professions such as medical diagnostics, engineering, and software development are now dominated by Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).
- The middle class is effectively erased, with wealth consolidating among AI owners, corporate executives, and those working in advanced research fields.
- Millions turn to a survivalist gig economy, taking on precarious microtasks, barter systems, and underground markets just to afford basic necessities.
Economic Fallout: The U.S. Enters Freefall
- Stock markets experience wild instability, with AI-driven efficiency creating record-breaking corporate profits while consumer spending collapses due to mass joblessness.
- Federal and state governments are overwhelmed by unemployment claims and economic aid requests, leading to unsustainable national debt and hyperinflation as financial institutions struggle to maintain stability.
- Mass corporate monopolization accelerates as only the wealthiest AI-driven enterprises remain viable, eliminating competition and pushing small businesses into bankruptcy.
- Global trade is disrupted, as AI-driven manufacturing displaces cheap human labor, leading to geopolitical tensions and economic isolation for many countries.
Policy and Government Response: Desperate Measures
- Emergency Universal Basic Income (UBI) is enacted, but at a cost—the U.S. government must heavily tax AI corporations and redistribute wealth on an unprecedented scale, sparking political and corporate backlash.
- Radical economic restructuring is considered, including experiments with post-capitalist models, direct AI taxation, and resource-based economies to stabilize society.
- Basic human services (housing, food, and healthcare) become partially or fully nationalized, as private enterprise can no longer sustain a consumer-driven economy.
- Social unrest reaches critical mass—widespread riots, looting, and cyber-attacks on AI infrastructure become daily occurrences as desperation fuels lawlessness.
Social and Psychological Collapse
- Economic strain leads to rising crime in affected regions, particularly in areas experiencing high job displacement and limited economic opportunities. Some communities see increasing reliance on privatized security and gated developments, further highlighting economic divides.
- Mental health concerns escalate, with increases in stress, anxiety, and depression, as individuals struggle to adapt to a rapidly changing job market and shifting societal expectations. Public health initiatives and mental wellness programs become crucial to mitigating these effects.
- Anti-AI activism gains momentum, with groups advocating for greater oversight, ethical AI implementation, and slower automation rollouts. In extreme cases, resistance movements seek to disrupt AI-driven infrastructure, reflecting broader concerns about economic security and human agency.
- Political and ideological divisions widen, as differing perspectives on AI’s role in society emerge. Some advocate for full AI integration to maximize efficiency and prosperity, while others push for greater human oversight and limitations on automation to protect traditional employment structures.
The Turning Point: What Happens Next?
At a TSI of 4.0, the U.S. faces an extremely pivotal moment of transformation. The rapid pace of automation and AI-driven disruption has fundamentally altered traditional economic structures, and policymakers, businesses, and individuals must work together to define a sustainable path forward. The country is at a crossroads, with several possible directions emerging:
- Strategic Adaptation and Economic Reinvention – Governments, industries, and communities collaborate to create a post-work economy, where AI-driven efficiency supports new workforce models, innovative economic policies, and expanded access to essential services such as healthcare, education, and housing. This transition requires proactive planning and investment in reskilling, digital infrastructure, and equitable economic participation.
- Corporate-Dominated AI Economy – Large technology-driven enterprises play an increasingly central role in economic decision-making, shaping labor markets and resource distribution.
- While AI-driven productivity leads to significant innovation, careful governance and regulatory oversight are needed to ensure broad economic inclusion and prevent excessive concentration of wealth and power.
- Fragmented Adjustments with Uneven Outcomes – Without coordinated intervention, different regions and industries may experience highly uneven economic and social adjustments, leading to regional disparities, workforce struggles, and political tensions. Some areas will successfully adapt, while others face prolonged instability, requiring targeted policy interventions to support affected populations.
Final Verdict: The Need for Proactive Leadership
A TSI of 4.0 marks a defining moment for the U.S. economy and workforce. These changes represent the potential for catastrophic collapse if not managed well. By focusing on AI governance, workforce adaptation, and economic innovation, the U.S. can create a future that balances technological progress with economic stability and social well-being. The decisions made now will determine whether this transition leads to prosperity and resilience, or prolonged economic hardship and instability.
TSI 5.0: Economic and Social Breakdown
TSI of 5.0: Possible Economic and Social Breakdown
At a TSI of 5.0, the United States, and likely the rest of the world, has entered an irreversible crisis. The scale and speed of disruption have surpassed all previous economic, political, and social thresholds, dismantling the foundations of labor, governance, and stability. Work is functionally obsolete for most people, economic systems fail to support the population, and society fractures under the weight of mass unemployment and structural collapse.
This level of technological disruption does not lead to an AI-driven utopia but rather to a world struggling to maintain basic order as the social contract dissolves. Governments, businesses, and communities fail to absorb the economic shock, leading to a future shaped by widespread instability, regional fragmentation, and humanitarian crises.
Employment and Economy: The Breakdown of Traditional Labor
- 80-90% of jobs have been eliminated across nearly all industries, including transportation, retail, legal services, finance, and even high-skilled knowledge work.
- A permanent underclass emerges, as most displaced workers never find equivalent employment, leading to a massive decline in consumer spending, housing markets, and tax revenue.
- Essential services falter, as funding for infrastructure, law enforcement, healthcare, and education dries up due to tax base collapse.
- Survival-driven economies emerge—barter systems, black markets, and subsistence lifestyles replace stable employment for millions.
Government and Policy: Institutional Collapse
- The federal government struggles to function, facing crippling deficits, political gridlock, and institutional paralysis.
- State and local governments attempt to fill the void, leading to regional governance models—some adapting successfully, others failing outright.
- Law enforcement and emergency services are underfunded and understaffed, leading to rising crime, civil unrest, and vigilante justice in areas with no economic recovery.
- Food and housing insecurity skyrocket, forcing emergency rationing, refugee-style displacement, and large-scale homelessness.
- Universal Basic Income (UBI) experiments expand but fail to offset the loss of millions of middle-income jobs, forcing new economic models that haven’t been tested at scale.
Social and Psychological Collapse: A Fractured Society
- Distrust in institutions reaches an all-time high, as people lose faith in governments, corporations, and economic systems.
- Widespread protests and riots erupt, driven by frustration over job loss, wealth disparity, and lack of government support.
- Mental health issues surge, with depression, addiction, and suicide rates climbing sharply as people struggle to find purpose or security in a world where work has been replaced.
- Cities become deeply divided, with fortified enclaves for the wealthy surrounded by sprawling impoverished districts where displaced workers compete for shrinking resources.
The Emerging Post-TSI 5.0 Reality: What Comes Next?
At this level of technological shock, the country splits into survival-driven models of governance and economic structure, with two broad trajectories:
Scenario 1: Austerity and Fragmented Adaptation
- Some regions successfully stabilize by implementing strong government intervention, securing food, healthcare, and housing for the jobless population.
- The economy shifts toward government-managed resource distribution, with severely reduced consumer activity.
- Society adjusts to a world with minimal traditional employment, but economic mobility and personal wealth creation become relics of the past.
- Large corporations remain dominant, but they are forced into heavily regulated AI taxation to fund a national stabilization program.
Scenario 2: Economic Collapse and Social Fracturing
- The U.S. fractures into regional economic zones, as federal oversight weakens and individual states or metro areas take independent control of their economies.
- Some states succeed in pivoting toward AI-driven wealth distribution, but others experience uncontrollable crime, migration crises, and political instability.
- Private security firms and corporate-run cities replace traditional law enforcement, leading to extreme wealth-based stratification.
- Many areas experience a breakdown of infrastructure, with widespread power outages, supply chain failures, and food shortages.
Final Verdict: The Last Days of the Old Economy
A TSI of 5.0 does not mean a sudden AI-driven utopia or an immediate collapse into anarchy. Instead, it represents a grinding breakdown of economic, political, and social structures, where some regions stabilize while others spiral into irreversible decline.
This is not a future of advanced human-AI integration—it is a reckoning for an economic system built on the assumption of human labor as the backbone of productivity. If society does not adapt to a world where AI replaces entire industries, the gap between stability and collapse will widen, and the ability to reverse these changes will diminish with each passing year.
The future at a TSI of 5.0 is not extinction—but a long, painful transition that determines whether humanity can redefine work, value, and survival in the face of total economic upheaval.
Indexed by Industry sectors
Specific industry tsi scores
(not hypothetical)
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, Rental, Leasing
GDP 20.7% / TSI 2.1
This sector includes highly automatable tasks like data processing, risk analysis, and customer service. With an estimated 30% displacement, 15% offset, and a 10-year timeline.

Professional and Business Services
GDP 13% / TSI 2.0
Encompassing legal, engineering, and consulting roles, this sector faces moderate disruption. With 40% displacement, 20% offset, and a 10-year timeline.

Government
GDP 12% / TSI 0.8

Manufacturing
GDP 11% / TSI 4.2

Educational Services, Health Care, Social Assist.
GDP 9% / TSI 1.1

Retail Trade
GDP 6% / TSI 3.3

Wholesale Trade
GDP 6% / TSI 3.3

Information
GDP 6% / TSI 3.0

Arts, Entertainment, Recreation, Accommodations, Food
GDP 4% / TSI 4.0

Construction
GDP 4% / TSI 2.0

Transportation and Warehousing
GDP 3% / TSI 3.1

Other Services (except Government)
GDP 2% / TSI 0.7

Utilities
GDP 2% / TSI 1.5

Mining
GDP 1% / TSI 1.5

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting
GDP 1% / TSI 2.9
